Comments on: Election Tracking http://www.technotaste.com/blog/election-tracking/ Social Psychology, Anthropology, Technology, Gluttony - by Judd Antin Fri, 13 Jan 2012 15:57:50 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Predicting the Election | TechnoTaste http://www.technotaste.com/blog/election-tracking/comment-page-1/#comment-89019 Predicting the Election | TechnoTaste Mon, 20 Oct 2008 19:23:36 +0000 http://www.technotaste.com/blog/?p=308#comment-89019 [...] You can imagine that, in an election that’s as enthusiastically watched as this one, there’s a lot of attention to predicting the outcome. Sites like fivethirtyeight.com use sophisticated statistical models to make predictions based on polling data. I’ve written about this previously. [...] [...] You can imagine that, in an election that's as enthusiastically watched as this one, there's a lot of attention to predicting the outcome. Sites like fivethirtyeight.com use sophisticated statistical models to make predictions based on polling data. I've written about this previously. [...]

]]> By: jantin http://www.technotaste.com/blog/election-tracking/comment-page-1/#comment-86936 jantin Tue, 30 Sep 2008 17:15:19 +0000 http://www.technotaste.com/blog/?p=308#comment-86936 That's a fair point. Transparency is one of the best arguments in favor of open source software, for example. I tend to use R, an open source statistical package, partly because I like the confidence I get from knowing anyone, anywhere can check out the code. SPSS, STATA, etc. are developed by truly smart people, but 'many eyes make all bugs shallow.' Still, it seems to me it's very hard to know which assumptions are problematic except in retrospect. You had great historical reasons for weighting undecided voters as you did in 2004. What I'd really like to see, I guess, is some conservative Republicans who run sites similar to PEC and 538. Anyone know of any? That's a fair point. Transparency is one of the best arguments in favor of open source software, for example. I tend to use R, an open source statistical package, partly because I like the confidence I get from knowing anyone, anywhere can check out the code. SPSS, STATA, etc. are developed by truly smart people, but 'many eyes make all bugs shallow.'

Still, it seems to me it's very hard to know which assumptions are problematic except in retrospect. You had great historical reasons for weighting undecided voters as you did in 2004.

What I'd really like to see, I guess, is some conservative Republicans who run sites similar to PEC and 538. Anyone know of any?

]]> By: Sam Wang http://www.technotaste.com/blog/election-tracking/comment-page-1/#comment-86915 Sam Wang Tue, 30 Sep 2008 12:39:10 +0000 http://www.technotaste.com/blog/?p=308#comment-86915 You know it won't happen again because my methods are purposely kept simple enough to be transparent. There is a bit of an entry barrier to the code itself (MATLAB and python), but the method should be well enough documented that people can understand it. There is always the danger of bias on the part of the analyst. The difficulty is in making good choices. As always I am attentive to readers. Nate Silver's methods aren't perfect but he is in general an honest broker. His site provides a prediction, as opposed to my site, which provides a current snapshot. Recently he assigned undecided voters in an uneven split. This is similar to my error in 2004. However, the election does not look to be headed for a close outcome so I think he will not suffer a penalty. Sam Wang election.princeton.edu. You know it won't happen again because my methods are purposely kept simple enough to be transparent. There is a bit of an entry barrier to the code itself (MATLAB and python), but the method should be well enough documented that people can understand it.

There is always the danger of bias on the part of the analyst. The difficulty is in making good choices. As always I am attentive to readers.

Nate Silver's methods aren't perfect but he is in general an honest broker. His site provides a prediction, as opposed to my site, which provides a current snapshot. Recently he assigned undecided voters in an uneven split. This is similar to my error in 2004. However, the election does not look to be headed for a close outcome so I think he will not suffer a penalty.

Sam Wang
election.princeton.edu.

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